The link worked for me without a log in.

It is all about cyber security and the use of a 3X3 risk matrix.

The author supports Bayesian Statistics instead of the risk matrix.

This is an exercise in sophistry.  There are two basic types of risk assessment.  Qualitative and Quantitative.  The best guess estimates are done using qualitative estimates while definitive risk assessment are done using the later (where the data are available).

The author suggest the “shaggy guesstimates” are just as described.  Like medicine, my 40 years of experience has given me some element of skills at anticipation and use of a 6X6 or 20X20 risk matrix works for me.  Further, loss of life always outweighs inconvenience.  Most companies spend significant amounts of money for fire protection but this is a low probability event.  He might suggest this is a waste of time.

Consider this a medium risk response

Zack

S.Z. Mansdorf, PhD, CIH, CSP, QEP

Consultant in EHS and Sustainability

7184 Via Palomar

Boca Raton, FL  33433

561-212-7288

When I click on the link I supplied, I, too, get the log in request.  ??  When I search on Google for “why the risk matrix must die” I get direct access to the article.  ??

Dave

This requires a log-in to view.  I am not particularly enamored of referral links that require that, and I am certainly not going to use Facebook or Google account information to log in to any other site.

Peter Zavon
Penfield, NY

PZAVON**At_Symbol_Here**Rochester.rr.com

While stumbling around the web with regard to thinking about the risk matrix, I came upon an article that questioned its value:

https://medium.com/**At_Symbol_Here**JornMineur/why-the-risk-matrix-must-die-620a7287e7c

The essence of the argument, I think, is that estimates of probability are very unreliable.   I’d appreciate the wisdom of the list regarding this essay and its conclusion.

Dave

David C. Finster
Professor Emeritus, Department of Chemistry
Wittenberg University

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