From: Zack Mansdorf <mansdorfz**At_Symbol_Here**BELLSOUTH.NET>
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2020 14:56:00 -0400
Reply-To: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU>
Message-ID: 02a201d6a25b$a8fa54f0$faeefed0$**At_Symbol_Here**bellsouth.net
In-Reply-To <998996CA-633C-43B1-A5F0-C557D59A3CFF**At_Symbol_Here**helixenv.com>


My colleague Ralph has done an excellent recap. I have just one caution. I think we are definitely overreacting to reinfections and the implications of reinfections. From a purely statistical basis, there are estimates of a dozen or so reinfections worldwide. Assume that it is even 100 or 1000. There are a reported 38 Million cases with 26 Million recoveries. I won't bother to do the math. The risk is too small to be significant. In the USA, there are about 8 Million cases reported with 5 Million recovered and maybe as many as 4 persons reinfected. Again, a 4 in 5 million chance is less than being struck by lightning (1 in 500,000).

 

Let's not jump to a conclusion that promotes panic.

 

Zack

S.Z. Mansdorf, PhD, CIH, CSP, QEP

Consultant in EHS and Sustainability

7184 Via Palomar

Boca Raton, FL 33433

561-212-7288

 

 

 

From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU> On Behalf Of Ralph Froehlich
Sent: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 9:38 AM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

All:

 

I think that we, as a group, need to keep in mind that we have very limited information on this VERY NEW pandemic virus. We should separate facts about the virus and its disease from the strategies that have been used to date to minimize the rate and severity of the pandemic. These strategies have been developed to reduce the incidence of the disease and rate of hospitalization and death rate, and some have been tested based using real life information which is less statistically rigorous than research science. So, the strategies can and should be adjusted, modified or altered as needed to produce better outcomes.

 

What we can all agree upon are the following:

 

SARS-Cov-19: 

is a coronavirus which continues to evolve.

can infect humans and can cause a wide range of symptoms from none to death.

has infected a large number of humans.

infections can be spread by asymptomatic infected persons.  

appears to spread via droplets, aerosols and surface contamination (in estimated declining probability).

appears to spread through close contact for more than 15 minutes with an infected person

infections can be sampled by nasopharyngeal swab, oronasal swab, blood samples, saliva, sputum, feces, and other body fluids.

samples can be analyzed by several analytical methods.

exposures can produce antibodies which can also be detected using different analytical methods.

infected persons can be re-infected after recovery from the initial infection.

 

RESPONSE STRATEGIES:

isolation can reduce the potential for person-to-person infections.

reducing the time of close contact may reduce the risk of infection.

face coverings can reduce the release of droplets and risk of infection.

distancing can reduce the risk of infection.

airtight barriers can reduce the risk of infection.

ventilation with outside air can reduce the risk of infection.

MERV 13 or better filtration should increase the capture of aerosols and may reduce the risk of infection.

properly-used respirators and protective clothing can reduce the risk of infection.

face shields can reduce contact with droplets, and may reduce risk of infection.

testing can identify currently-infectious persons or recently-infected persons.

contact tracing may be able to identify persons who were in close contact with an infected person for more than 15 minutes.

negative test results do not confer immunity from future infections.

low Vitamin D levels in blood are associated with more severe health outcomes.

other medical conditions are associated with more severe health outcomes.

proven medical treatments for infected persons are limited. 

effective vaccination against the virus is not yet available. 

As our understanding of SARS-CoV-19 and its health effects progresses, we may need to develop additional strategies for reducing the spread of the virus, or may need to modify the strategies used to date. Individually, our focus should be to implement all applicable possible response strategies in our spheres of operation, and consider new or altered strategies as they are developed. What level of response is appropriate is a constantly shifting target based on incomplete information.

 

Please let me know if you can add to either list.

 

Ralph A. Froehlich, CIH, CSP, QEP

Helix Environmental, Inc.

 

 

 

 



On Oct 13, 2020, at 3:50 PM, Jack Reidy <jreidy2**At_Symbol_Here**STANFORD.EDU> wrote:

 

All,

 

I think it is also important when discussing the concept of herd immunity that such a strategy is, to my understanding, usually reliant on total immunity once someone has been infected and recovered. While there is still only early information on the phenomenon, it has been demonstrated that individuals can be reinfected (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext). Not only was this individual infected twice, the second infection proved to be more severe than the first. While N = 1 isn't good enough to draw conclusions, to me it does raise some very serious concerns regarding herd immunity-based strategies. Monona, Rob, et al. have expressed the other concerns I have better than I could, and I'm no epidemiologist anyway, so I'll leave it at that.

 

Sincerely,

 

Jack Reidy (he/him)

Research Safety Specialist, Assistant Chemical Hygiene Officer

Environmental Health & Safety

Stanford University

484 Oak Road, Stanford, CA, 94305

Tel: (650) 497-7614

 

 

 

From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU> On Behalf Of ILPI Support
Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:11 PM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

I will respectfully but very forcefully disagree.

 

To your first point, the additional deaths is not "wild speculation". It's a best estimate based on the best modeling available.  See, for example, https://covid19.healthdata..org/global

 

To your second point, The first case in central Florida was not reported until March 7, the day you left.  The infection rate at the time of your observation was statistically zero so there was nothing to spread:  https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/ 

 

Rob Toreki

 

 ======================================================

Safety Emporium - Lab & Safety Supplies featuring brand names

you know and trust.  Visit us at http://www.SafetyEmporium.com

esales**At_Symbol_Here**safetyemporium.com  or toll-free: (866) 326-5412

Fax: (856) 553-6154, PO Box 1003, Blackwood, NJ 08012

 

 

 

On Oct 13, 2020, at 2:37 PM, Zack Mansdorf <mansdorfz**At_Symbol_Here**BELLSOUTH.NET> wrote:

 

Suggesting 500,000 to 2,100,000 additional deaths is wild speculation.

 

Let me tell you about Disney.  I was there for a week in March (March 1-7) just 2 days before the Governor force them to close.  The park was at capacity each and every day.  We had to park in the overflow lots each day.  I was there with my son and his family (granddaughter) and her other grandparents.  People in line were within inches of each other for each and every day.  People at the park were from all parts of the World including Europe.  There were hand rails and safety rails and guard rails in rides that we touched by everyone without cleaning.  Most rides were also at capacity and people flowed in and out without cleaning.  There were a very large number of kids including my granddaughter all running around (as would be expected).  The restaurants were jammed.  All the rides were jammed even with the special passes.  No one had masks.  No hand sanitizer.  No mass of infections (as far as I know).  Maybe all 50,000 of us were just lucky.  I don't think so.  

 

One last point that everyone knows that has dealt with taking a young child there.  Many of the venues that were available were inside of buildings and again, very cramped quarters.

 

Zack Mansdorf

 

From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU> On Behalf Of Reinhardt, Peter
Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2020 12:32 PM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

I think it is unethical to advocate herd immunity because it would mean 500,000-2,100,000 preventable deaths in the U.S.

 

 

As safety professionals and human beings, we should support the use of simple safety measures (masks, distancing) to prevent even one death. That's ethics 101.

 

Regarding Disney World, being outdoors is a terrific mitigation measure for aerosol transmission. Winter will be challenge because we are indoors and the relative humidity is lower.

 

Pete Reinhardt, Yale EHS

 

From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU> on behalf of Rob Torkei <info**At_Symbol_Here**ILPI.COM>
Reply-To: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <
DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU>
Date: Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 11:46 AM
To: "
DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU" <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU>
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

 

I had a discussion with a friend who believes masks don't stop the spread and that full-on herd immunity is the way to go. He pointed out the lack of super spreading at Disney World as an example of concerns being overblown: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/disney-world-coronavirus.html  (although there are some accusations of coverup and concerns about lack of contract tracing to people's home states).

 

When I looked into the Disney thing further, I was rather astonished:  https://www.disneytouristblog.com/faq-guide-face-masks-disney-world/  Disney has really tough mask rules with really high compliance.  In other words, my friend's example strongly supported my contentions about mask usage, not his.  But he didn't want to discuss it after I pointed this out.

 

Rob Toreki

 

 

 ======================================================

Safety Emporium - Lab & Safety Supplies featuring brand names

you know and trust.  Visit us at http://www.SafetyEmporium.com

esales**At_Symbol_Here**safetyemporium.com  or toll-free: (866) 326-5412

Fax: (856) 553-6154, PO Box 1003, Blackwood, NJ 08012

 

 

 

On Oct 13, 2020, at 10:38 AM, Yaritza Brinker <YBrinker**At_Symbol_Here**FELE.COM> wrote:

 

I think there are differences of opinion on how to best achieve heard immunity. Some think it's best to do so by vaccination and, in the meantime, we all hide from the virus. Some think it's best to expose those who are most likely to survive the virus, and hide those who are most likely to die from it.

 

These are simply two schools of thought. We should refrain from accusing each "camp" of being unethical or uncaring.. Those types of accusations keep us from having an honest discussion.

 

This pattern of behavior has taken hold of our society. It has given birth to the "silent majority" It needs to stop.

 

Thank you,

 

Yaritza Brinker

260.827.5402

 

From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU> On Behalf Of Ernest Lippert
Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2020 1:05 PM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

** External Email **

It is interesting to reflect on how our actions affect others and, perhaps, ourselves? Remember that ethics is concerned with our correct behavior in a structured society. And isn't it a prime directive of safety culture to ensure that others don't get hurt?
Ernie Lippert

 

 

 


From: "ILPI Support" <info**At_Symbol_Here**ILPI.COM>
Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2020 11:39 AM
To: 
DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**Princeton.EDU
Subject: Re: [DCHAS-L] Melbourne, Victoria, AU - Facial Coverings

 

I wasn't going to wade into this, but since we are getting into various analogies.

 

Seat belts protect more than the individual. They protect EMS workers who won't have to experience the PTSD trauma of unnecessarily scraping someone's brain off the pavement. They protect my insurance rates so that someone who is ejected from their vehicle doesn't end up needing millions of dollars of medical and rehabilitative care.  They protect family members who won't lose their breadwinner or have to declare bankruptcy to pay their medical bills.

 

Here are two more analogies:

 

1. I'm a good driver. I haven't had an at-fault accident.  In theory (unless I live in a no-fault state), I don't need auto insurance because my risk of an at-fault accident is very low and if I did cause one I have financial resources to cover the damage to another car or person.  However, the state (or State, depending on your worldview, I suppose) says I must have insurance in order to operate a motor vehicle on public roads.  Why?  To protect the other driver if I do cause an accident. By happenstance, that same government-mandated protection also covers/protects me.

 

2. I am amused by the small but vocal cadre who see modest mask requirements as a totalitarian abomination and at the same time fervently support leaders who call the press the enemy of the people, disparage and dismiss science, deliberately sow false distrust of our election system, and refuse to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.  It's like worrying about a hangnail when you have a compound fracture of the femur and are hours away from the nearest hospital.

 

It's a frickin' piece of cloth, not a diving helmet or spiked chastity belt.  Tens of millions of workers across the world wear masks all day long (medical, industrial, construction). It's trivial and if everyone did it for a couple weeks most of this goes away.  Two words: New Zealand. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54260925 

 

Rob Toreki

 

 ======================================================

Safety Emporium - Lab & Safety Supplies featuring brand names

you know and trust.  Visit us at http://www.SafetyEmporium.com

esales**At_Symbol_Here**safetyemporium.com  or toll-free: (866) 326-5412

Fax: (856) 553-6154, PO Box 1003, Blackwood, NJ 08012

 


 

 

On Oct 11, 2020, at 8:35 AM, Ray Cook <raycook**At_Symbol_Here**APEXHSE.COM> wrote:

 

Just my thoughts on this, not here to debate. I respect you all have your own opinions.

 

The first line of your response Monona defines the problem with this whole mask endeavor (..for my own good). As someone who has spent a career specifying personal protective equipment, I cannot follow the concept of PPE that must be worn by one individual to protect someone else. By definition, it is "personal" protection. I think most people are more than willing to do something for "their own good." If I am concerned about getting exposed to an airborne contaminant, I can wear an N100 respirator and at least feel like I am doing something to protect myself. However, wearing a surgical mask or whatever, is not for my own good. It is supposedly to protect everyone else, which I don't recall being my responsibility (except in a professional capacity).  Last I saw, many jurisdictions don't want you to protect yourself by wearing a real respirator with an exhalation valve as you then become a "threat" to others.  (So protecting self is bad, protecting others is your duty). 

 

Wearing a seat belt protects me. Forcing you to wear one to protect me does not, nor does it make sense. Not the same, but you see my point.  This virus is not a plague. People in high risk groups SHOULD protect themselves using appropriate measures. I am not clear at all on the logic of how responsibility became transferred from protecting  yourself (especially the vulnerable) to requiring all other individuals to submit to doing something undesirable/uncomfortable to theoretically protect other people, relying on the possibility that it may have some positive effect on preventing the spread of a 95-99 % survivable influenza. Not a strong driver here.. 

 

I do disagree with your statement that by not wearing a mask people are assaulting others. Normal life does not involve wearing a mask. Never has. Living life in fear of a largely survivable disease is unnecessary, and better protection is available for those who need it. I have more faith in our immune system than govts do.

 

Have a good week!
  

Regards,

 

Ray Cook, MS, CIH 2000-2016

CSP ret.

832-477-4454

I Cor 1:18

In omnia paratus

Sent from my iPhone

 

 

On Oct 11, 2020, at 5:18 AM, Monona Rossol <0000030664c37427-dmarc-request**At_Symbol_Here**lists.princeton.edu> wrote:
 

?

If big brother is sane and asking for me to do things for my own good, I have no problem.  And actually, the Oz big brother is only a threat to people who aren't doing what good practice and common sense dictates. Claiming the right to harm others by imprudent behavior in this pandemic is not freedom, it's assault.

 

I think the problem is you might think the masks that the Australians are talking about need fit testing.  That's not what they mean.  They just mean that they fit tight to the face leaving no obvious gaps.  So surgical masks and well-made cloth masks are fine.  And they include direction for making a good mask.

 

They also require it cover both the nose and the mouth.  I'd like to see the Oz Big Brother working over here -- maybe right in my neighborhood..

 

Monona
 

(snip)

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